Considering the pore deformation and permeability changes during dilation-recompaction in cyclic steam stimulation (CSS), an existing geomechanical model is improved and thermo-mechanically coupled with the flow equations to form a coupled flow-geomechanical model. The impacts of dilation-recompaction parameters can be quantified through sensitivity analysis and uncertainty assessment utilizing the synergy between Latin hypercube designs and response surface methodology. The improved coupled flow-geomechanical model allows a more reasonable history-matching of steam injection pressure and volume and oil/water production volume. In both the linear and quadratic models, the rise in recompaction pressure has the most significant effect on the rise in the volumes of steam injection and water production, both rock compressibility and recompaction pressure are positively correlated with steam injectivity and oil/water production, and the dilation pressure is negatively correlated with steam injectivity and oil/water production. In the linear model, dilation pressure has the most significant negative impact on the cumulative oil production, and compressibility and recompaction pressure are positively correlated with oil production. In the quadratic model, the rise in recompaction pressure has the most significant effect on the rise in the cumulative volumes of oil/water production and steam injection. The interactions between the dilation/recompaction pressures and spongy-rock compressibility negatively affect the cumulative volumes of oil/water production and steam injection.
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