综合研究

论地球能源演化与人类发展及碳中和战略

  • 邹才能 ,
  • 马锋 ,
  • 潘松圻 ,
  • 林敏捷 ,
  • 张国生 ,
  • 熊波 ,
  • 王影 ,
  • 梁英波 ,
  • 杨智
展开
  • 中国石油勘探开发研究院,北京 100083
邹才能(1963-),男,重庆北碚人,博士,中国科学院院士,中国石油勘探开发研究院教授级高级工程师,主要从事常规-非常规油气地质学理论研究与实践、新能源与能源战略等研究。地址:北京市海淀区学院路20号,中国石油勘探开发研究院院办,邮政编码:100083。E-mail:zcn@petrochina.com.cn

收稿日期: 2022-01-01

  网络出版日期: 2022-03-16

Earth energy evolution, human development and carbon neutral strategy

  • ZOU Caineng ,
  • MA Feng ,
  • PAN Songqi ,
  • LIN Minjie ,
  • ZHANG Guosheng ,
  • XIONG Bo ,
  • WANG Ying ,
  • LIANG Yingbo ,
  • YANG Zhi
Expand
  • PetroChina Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration & Development, Beijing 100083, China

Received date: 2022-01-01

  Online published: 2022-03-16

摘要

能源是人类发展的基础与社会进步的动力,“能”具有3种来源:地球外部天体能、地球自身能及地球与其他天体相互作用能。生命起源、能源形成与地球系统密切相关,具有3个尺度的协同演化关系:超长时间尺度上,日-地-月系统演化为地球系统的形成提供了能量来源和地外环境条件;长时间尺度上,地球系统演化为生命的诞生和人类的发展提供了能源资源等物质前提和适宜的圈层环境;短时间尺度上,人类文明发展使人类圈层突破了地球系统向地外文明拓展。伴随这一协同关系的演进,碳循环存在无机碳循环、短期有机碳循环、长期有机碳循环3种过程,人类对化石能源的无节制利用和全球化圈层改造活动打破了碳循环的自然平衡和闭环路径,导致温室气体增加和全球气候变化,影响人类幸福发展。能源转型势在必行,碳中和愿景必将实现,构建“绿色能源命运共同体”是碳中和目标下构建新型能源体系的根本举措。中国加快能源革命,建设能源强国,筑牢筑强化石能源安全供给“压舱石”,筑高筑大新能源绿色可持续发展“增长极”,依靠高水平科技自立自强,构建高质量的“清洁低碳、安全高效、独立自主”的绿色能源体系,实现中国能源生产与消费结构,从以化石能源为主的“一大三小”向以新能源为主的“三小一大”革命性转型。能源发展具有化石能源低碳化、新能源规模化、能源系统智慧化三大趋势,依靠绿色创新,贡献绿色能源,建设绿色家园,共享绿色生活。

本文引用格式

邹才能 , 马锋 , 潘松圻 , 林敏捷 , 张国生 , 熊波 , 王影 , 梁英波 , 杨智 . 论地球能源演化与人类发展及碳中和战略[J]. 石油勘探与开发, 2022 , 49(2) : 411 -428 . DOI: 10.11698/PED.2022.02.20

Abstract

Energy is the basis of human development and the impetus of society progress. There are three sources of energy: energy of celestial body outside the Earth, the Earth energy and energy of interaction between the Earth and other celestial bodies. Meanwhile, there are three scales of co-evolution: the evolution of the Sun-Earth-Moon system on an ultra-long time scale has provided energy sources and extra-terrestrial environmental conditions for the formation of the Earth system; the evolution of the Earth system on a long time scale has provided the material preconditions such as energy resources and suitable sphere environment for life birth and the human development; on a short time scale, the development of human civilization makes the human circle break through the Earth system, expanding the extraterrestrial civilization. With the co-evolution, there are three processes in the carbon cycle: inorganic carbon cycle, short-term organic carbon cycle and long-term organic carbon cycle, which records human immoderate utilization of fossil energy and global sphere reforming activities, breaking the natural balance and closed-loop path of the carbon cycle of the Earth, causing the increase of greenhouse gases and global climate change, affecting human happiness and development. The energy transition is inevitable, and carbon neutrality must be realized. Building the green energy community is a fundamental measure to create the new energy system under carbon neutrality target. China is speeding up its energy revolution and developing a powerful energy nation. It is necessary to secure the cornerstone of the supply of fossil energy and forge a strong growing pole for green and sustainable development of new energy. China energy production and consumption structure will make a revolutionary transformation from the type of fossil energy domination to the type of new energy domination, depending on a high-level self-reliance of science and technology and a high-quality green energy system of cleaning, low-carbon, safety, efficiency and independence. Energy development has three major trends: low-carbon fossil energy, large-scale new energy and intelligent energy system, relying on the green innovation, contributing the green energy and constructing the green homeland.

参考文献

[1] 中美联合编审委员会. 简明不列颠百科全书[M]. 北京: 中国大百科全书出版社, 1986: 221.
China-US Joint Editorial Review Committee. Concise Encyclopædia Britannica[M]. Beijing: Encyclopedia of China Publishing House, 1986: 221.
[2] 大英科技百科全书编委会. 大英科技百科全书[M]. 台北: 光复书局, 1985: 58-67.
Editorial Board of Illustrated Encyclopaedia of Science and Technology. Illustrated encyclopaedia of science and technology[M]. Taipei: The Recovery is Wang, 1985: 58-67.
[3] 新华汉语词典编委会. 新华汉语词典[M]. 2版. 北京: 商务印书馆国际有限公司, 2013: 715.
Editorial Board of Xinhua Chinese Dictionary. Xinhua dictionary[M]. 2nd ed. Beijing: The Commercial Press International Co., Ltd, 2013: 715.
[4] 英国培生教育出版有限公司. 朗文当代高级英语辞典[M]. 北京: 外语教学与研究出版社, 2004: 618.
Pearson Education Publishing Co., Ltd. Longman dictionary of contemporary English[M]. Beijing: Foreign Language Teaching and Research Press, 2004: 618.
[5] 古德斯坦, 英特里利盖托. 气候变化与能源问题: 从自然科学与经济学视角[M]. 王海林, 译. 大连: 东北财经大学出版社, 2018: 1-98.
GOODSTEIN, INTRILIGATOR. Climate change and the energy problem: Physical science and economics perspective[M]. WANG Hailin, Trans. Dalian: Dongbei University of Finance & Economics Press, 2018: 1-98.
[6] 麦克尔罗伊. 能源与气候: 前景展望[M]. 鲁玺, 王书肖, 郝吉明, 译. 北京: 科学出版社, 2018.
MCELROY. Energy and climate: Vision for the future[M]. LU Xi, WANG Shuxiao, HAO Jiming, Trans. Beijing: Science Press, 2018.
[7] 麦克尔罗伊. 能源: 展望、挑战与机遇[M]. 王聿绚, 郝吉明, 鲁玺, 译. 北京: 科学出版社, 2011.
MCELROY. Energy: Perspectives, problems & prospects[M]. WANG Jinxuan, HAO Jiming, LU Xi, Trans. Beijing: Science Press, 2011.
[8] 中国社会科学院大学(研究生院)国际能源安全研究中心. 世界能源发展报告 (2021)[M]. 北京: 社会科学文献出版社, 2021: 5-53.
International Energy Security Research Center, University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (Graduate School). Annual development report on world energy (2021)[M]. Beijing: Social Sciences Academic Press, 2021: 5-53.
[9] British Petroleum. BP energy outlook 2020[EB/OL]. (2020-09-14) [2021-09-29]. https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/news-and-insights/press-releases/bp-energy-outlook-2020-pr.pdf.
[10] BROWN D W. A hot dry rock geothermal energy concept utilizing supercritical CO2 instead of water[R]. Stanford: Stanford Geothermal Workshop, 2000.
[11] PRUESS K. Enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) using CO2 as working fluid: A novel approach for generating renewable energy with simultaneous sequestration of carbon[J]. Geothermics, 2006, 35(4): 351-367.
[12] 吴曙光, 赵玉燕. 我国最早开发利用水力能源的地域、时间及民族考[J]. 广西民族研究, 2002(1): 94-102.
WU Shuguang, ZHAO Yuyan. Study on the region, time and nationality of the earliest exploitation and utilization of water energy in China[J]. Guangxi Ethnic Studies, 2002(1): 94-102.
[13] 李一良, 孙思. 地球生命的起源[J]. 科学通报, 2016, 61(28/29): 3065-3078.
LI Yiliang, SUN Si. The origin of life on earth[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin, 2016, 61(28/29): 3065-3078.
[14] 汪品先, 田军, 黄恩清, 等. 地球系统与演变[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 2018.
WANG Pinxian, TIAN Jun, HUANG Enqing, et al. Earth system and evolution[M]. Beijing: Science Press, 2018.
[15] KUMP L R, KASTING J F, CRANE R G. 地球系统[M]. 张晶, 戴永久, 译. 3版. 北京: 高等教育出版社, 2011.
KUMP L R, KASTING J F, CRANE R G. The earth system[M]. ZHANG Jing, DAI Yongjiu, Trans. 3rd ed. Beijing: Higher Education Press, 2011.
[16] LENTON T. 地球系统科学[M]. 林岩銮, 译. 北京: 外语教学与研究出版社, 2020: 1-147.
LENTON T. Earth system science[M]. LIN Yanluan, Trans. Beijing: Foreign Language Teaching and Research Press, 2020: 1-147.
[17] 林杨挺, 欧阳自远. 太阳系形成及演化研究方法[J]. 地学前缘, 1998, 5(1/2): 61-71.
LIN Yangting, OUYANG Ziyuan. Methods of research on formation and evolution of the solar nebula[J]. Earth Science Frontiers, 1998, 5(1/2): 61-71.
[18] 欧阳自远, 刘建忠. 月球形成演化与月球地质图编研[J]. 地学前缘, 2014, 21(6): 1-6.
OUYANG Ziyuan, LIU Jianzhong. The origin and evolution of the moon and its geological mapping[J]. Earth Science Frontiers, 2014, 21(6): 1-6.
[19] WILDE S A, VALLEY J W, PECK W H, et al. Evidence from detrital zircons for the existence of continental crust and oceans on the earth 4.4 Gyr ago[J]. Nature, 2001, 409(6817): 175-178.
[20] 朱日祥, 侯增谦, 郭正堂, 等. 宜居地球的过去、现在与未来: 地球科学发展战略概要[J]. 科学通报, 2021, 66(35): 4485-4490.
ZHU Rixiang, HOU Zengqian, GUO Zhengtang, et al. Summary of “the past, present and future of the habitable earth: Development strategy of earth science”[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin, 2021, 66(35): 4485-4490.
[21] 谢树成, 殷鸿福. 地球生物学前沿: 进展与问题[J]. 中国科学: 地球科学, 2014, 44(6): 1072-1086.
XIE Shucheng, YIN Hongfu. Progress and perspective on frontiers of geobiology[J]. SCIENCE CHINA Earth Sciences, 2014, 57(5): 855-868.
[22] 张志飞, 刘璠, 梁悦, 等. 寒武纪生命大爆发与地球生态系统起源演化[J]. 西北大学学报(自然科学版), 2021, 51(6): 1065-1106.
ZHANG Zhifei, LIU Fan, LIANG Yue, et al. The Cambrian explosion of animals and the evolution of ecosystems on earth[J]. Journal of Northwest University (Natural Science Edition), 2021, 51(6): 1065-1106.
[23] 刘伟, 张兴亮. 新元古代地球环境与生命演化研究进展与趋势[J]. 西北大学学报(自然科学版), 2021, 51(6): 1057-1064.
LIU Wei, ZHANG Xingliang. Research progress and tendency on Neoproterozoic environments and lives[J]. Journal of Northwest University (Natural Science Edition), 2021, 51(6): 1057-1064.
[24] 潘松圻, 邹才能, 李勇, 等. 重大生物事件与化石能源形成演化: 兼论地球系统框架下能源学发展[J]. 石油勘探与开发, 2021, 48(3): 498-509.
PAN Songqi, ZOU Caineng, LI Yong, et al. Major biological events and fossil energy formation: On the development of energy science under the earth system framework[J]. Petroleum Exploration and Development, 2021, 48(3): 498-509.
[25] 杨智, 邹才能, 陈建军, 等. “进 (近) 源找油”: 油气地质理论创新与重点领域勘探思考[J]. 石油学报, 2021, 42(10): 1310-1324.
YANG Zhi, ZOU Caineng, CHEN Jianjun, et al. “Exploring petroleum inside or near the source kitchen”: Innovations in petroleum geology theory and reflections on hydrocarbon exploration in key fields[J]. Acta Petrolei Sinica, 2021, 42(10): 1310-1324.
[26] 邹才能, 翟光明, 张光亚, 等. 全球常规-非常规油气形成分布、资源潜力及趋势预测[J]. 石油勘探与开发, 2015, 42(1): 13-25.
ZOU Caineng, ZHAI Guangming, ZHANG Guangya, et al. Formation, distribution, potential and prediction of global conventional and unconventional hydrocarbon resources[J]. Petroleum Exploration and Development, 2015, 42(1): 13-25.
[27] 刘东生. 开展“人类世” 环境研究, 做新时代地学的开拓者: 纪念黄汲清先生的地学创新精神[J]. 第四纪研究, 2004, 24(4): 369-378.
LIU Dongsheng. Demand of Anthropocene study in the new stage of geoscience: In honor of late geologist Huang Jiqing for his innovative spirit[J]. Quaternary Sciences, 2004, 24(4): 369-378.
[28] 叶笃正, 季劲钧, 严中伟, 等. 简论人类圈 (Anthroposphere) 在地球系统中的作用[J]. 大气科学, 2009, 33(3): 409-415.
YE Duzheng, JI Jinjun, YAN Zhongwei, et al. Anthroposphere: An interactive component in the earth system[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2009, 33(3): 409-415.
[29] 陈之荣. 人类圈与全球变化[J]. 地球科学进展, 1993, 8(3): 63-69.
CHEN Zhirong. Anthroposphere and global change[J]. Advance in Earth Sciences, 1993, 8(3): 63-69.
[30] 殷鸿福. 中国深部地下生物圈亟待研究[J]. 科学通报, 2018, 63(36): 3883-3884.
YIN Hongfu. The deep underground biosphere in China needs to be studied urgently[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin, 2018, 63(36): 3883-3884.
[31] ANISSIMOV M.What is the Kardashev scale?[EB/OL]. [2022-01-20].https://www.infobloom.com/what-is-the-kardashev-scale.htm.
[32] CREIGHTON J.A brief explanation of the Kardashev scale: How far can humanity really advance?[EB/OL]. [2022-01-20].https://futurism.com/the-kardashev-scale-of-civilization-types/.
[33] 刘树华. 环境生态学[M]. 北京: 北京大学出版社, 2009: 1-45.
LIU Shuhua. Environmental ecology[M]. Beijing: Peking University Press, 2009: 1-45.
[34] 袁峰. 黑洞的理论基础与观测检验: 2020年度诺贝尔物理学奖解读[J]. 科学通报, 2020, 65(36): 4161-4167.
YUAN Feng. Theoretical foundation and observational test for black holes: Interpretation of the Nobel Prize in Physics 2020[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin, 2020, 65(36): 4161-4167.
[35] 辛克. 未来能源:能源革命的战略机遇期[M]. 孙克乙, 译. 北京: 中国科学技术出版社, 2020.
SCHENKER. The future of energy: Technologies and trends driving disruption[M]. SUN Keyi, Trans. Beijing: Science and Technology of China Press, 2020.
[36] 任平. 能源的饭碗必须端在自己手里[N]. 人民日报, 2022-01-07 (005).
REN Ping. The energy bowl must be in your own hands[N]. People’s Daily, 2022-01-07(005).
[37] 罗兹. 能源传:一部人类生存危机史[M]. 刘海翔, 甘露, 译. 北京: 人民日报出版社, 2020.
RHODES. Energy: A human history[M]. LIU Haixiang, GAN Lu, Trans. Beijing: People’s Daily Press, 2020.
[38] 何继善, 杨善林, 王安, 等. 第三次工业革命与能源生产消费革命[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 2017: 1-91.
HE Jishan, YANG Shanlin, WANG An, et al. The third industrial revolution and energy production and consumption revolution[M]. Beijing: Science Press, 2017: 1-91.
[39] 施瓦布. 第四次工业革命: 转型的力量[M]. 李菁, 译. 北京: 中信出版社, 2016.
SCHWAB. The fourth industrial revolution: The power of transformation[M]. LI Jing, Trans. Beijing: China CITIC Press, 2016.
[40] 廖桂霞. 人与生态环境和谐共处: 生态环境与人的发展的相互作用初探[D]. 湘潭: 湘潭大学, 2010: 9-37.
LIAO Guixia. The harmonious coexistence of humankind and ecological environment: The analysis of the interactions of humankind and ecological environment[D]. Xiangtan: Xiangtan University, 2010: 9-37.
[41] 星球研究所. 碳如何玩转地球?[EB/OL]. (2021-12-14)[2022-01-20]. https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/SSQ4HnLFvbehH6LZcUwKxw.
Institute for Planets. How does carbon spin the earth?[EB/OL]. (2021-12-14)[2022-01-20]. https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/SSQ4HnLFvbehH6LZcUwKxw.
[42] RUDDIMAN W F. Earth’s climate: Past and future[M]. 3rd ed. New York: W.H. Freeman, 2014.
[43] 世界气象组织. 温室气体公报 (2021)[R/OL]. (2021-10-25)[2022-01-20]. https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/climate.
World Meteorological Organization. Greenhouse gas bulletin (2021)[R/OL]. (2021-10-25)[2022-01-20]. https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/climate.
[44] United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. World population prospects 2019[DB/OL]. [2022-01-21]. https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Download/Standard/Population/.
[45] 段茂胜, 周胜. 能源与气候变化[M]. 北京: 化学工业出版社, 2014.
DUAN Maosheng, ZHOU Sheng. Energy and climate change[M]. Beijing: Chemical Industry Press, 2014.
[46] 美国国家航空航天局, 美国国家海洋和大气管理局. 全球气温和气候分析报告[R/OL]. (2021-01-15)[2022-01-20]. http://www.nasa.gov/.
National Aeronautics and Space Administration, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Global temperature and climate analysis report[R/OL]. (2021-01-15)[2022-01-20]. http://www.nasa.gov/.
[47] Working Group I. Climate change 2021: The physical science basis[R/OL]. (2021-08-06)[2022-01-15]. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-i/.
[48] EM-DAT. The georeferenced emergency events database[DB/OL]. (2021-12-28)[2022-01-21]. https://www.emdat.be/database.
[49] 盖茨. 气候经济与人类未来[M]. 陈召强, 译. 北京: 中信出版社, 2021.
GATES. How to avoid a climate disaster: The solutions we have and the breakthroughs we need[M]. CHEN Zhaoqiang, Trans. Beijing: China CITIC Press, 2021.
[50] 里夫金. 零碳社会:生态文明的崛起和全球绿色新政[M]. 赛迪研究院专家组, 译. 北京: 中信出版社, 2020.
RIFKIN. The global green new deal: The collapse of the fossil fuel civilization by 2028, and the rise of the ecological civilization[M]. Expert group of CCID Research Institute, Trans. Beijing: China CITIC Press, 2020.
[51] 斯米尔. 能源转型:数据、历史与未来[M]. 高峰, 江艾欣, 李宏达, 译. 北京: 科学出版社, 2018.
SMIL. Energy transitions: History, requirements, prospects[M]. GAO Feng, JIANG Aixin, LI Hongda, Trans. Beijing: Science Press, 2018.
[52] 傅伯杰. 联合国可持续发展目标与地理科学的历史任务[J]. 科技导报, 2020, 38(13): 19-24.
FU Bojie. UN sustainable development goals and historical mission of geography[J]. Science & Technology Review, 2020, 38(13): 19-24.
[53] 丁仲礼. 碳中和对中国的挑战和机遇[EB/OL]. (2022-01-09)[2022-01-20]. https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/7xZoE0xfTCv5xXJkSE4AKA.
DING Zhongli. The challenges and opportunities of carbon neutrality for China[EB/OL]. (2022-01-09)[2022-01-20]. https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/7xZoE0xfTCv5xXJkSE4AKA.
[54] 邹才能, 何东博, 贾成业, 等. 世界能源转型内涵、路径及其对碳中和的意义[J]. 石油学报, 2021, 42(2): 233-247.
ZOU Caineng, HE Dongbo, JIA Chengye, et al. Connotation and pathway of world energy transition and its significance for carbon neutral[J]. Acta Petrolei Sinica, 2021, 42(2): 233-247.
[55] 邹才能, 薛华庆, 熊波, 等. “碳中和” 的内涵、创新与愿景[J]. 天然气工业, 2021, 41(8): 46-57.
ZOU Caineng, XUE Huaqing, XIONG Bo, et al. Connotation, innovation and vision of “carbon neutral”[J]. Natural Gas Industry, 2021, 41(8): 46-57.
文章导航

/