通过系统梳理低油价背景下中国油田开发面临的挑战,深刻剖析了成本上升根源,提出了油田低成本开发战略的内涵和具体实现路径,同时对中国油田开发的潜力进行了预测。研究表明,中国陆上原油完全成本上升,除了开发对象劣质化、老龄化等客观因素外,还需重点关注如下要素：①面对的资源品种变差,技术攻关和试验准备不足,建产节奏过快;②工程技术服务模式制约导致工程技术服务成本高;③技术队伍与工艺系统配套难以满足稳油控水和精细开发的技术需求。实现低成本战略,增加经济可采储量是核心,具体举措为：①通过深入挖掘“大庆开发文化”,在生产实践中真正提升开发业务领导力,激励人力资源创效;②提升油藏动态调控的驾驭能力,以科学原则推动精准开发;③推进“二三结合”工程与技术升级,大幅度提高采收率;④创新注气开发关键技术,加快气驱工业化推广;⑤打破关联交易壁垒,创新管理模式;⑥协同优化战略布局,培育重点原油产业基地。尽管中国油田开发面临巨大的成本压力,但只要做好新、老油田的开发战略部署,老油田以“控制递减率、提高采收率”为核心,新油田以“技术进步提单产、管理创新提效益”为核心,低成本开发战略必将取得成功。图8 表1 参16
By reviewing the challenges in the development of oilfields in China under low oil prices, this study analyzes the root causes of cost rising, put forwards the low cost oilfield development strategy and specific paths to realize the strategy, and predicts the development potential and prospect of oilfields in China. In addition to the low grade of the reservoir and high development maturation, the fundamental reasons of development full cost rising of oilfields in China are as follows: (1) Facing the problem of resources turning poorer in quality, we have built production capacity at a pace too fast before making enough technical and experimental preparation; (2) technical engineering service model leads to high service cost; (3) team of oil development expertise and process system cannot satisfy the technical requirements of stabilizing oil production, controlling water cut and fine development. To realize development at low cost, the core is to increase economic recoverable reserves. The concrete paths include: (1) to explore the “Daqing oilfield development culture”, improve the ability of leaders in charge of development, and inspire potential of staff; (2) to improve the ability of reservoir dynamics control, and implement precise development by following scientific principles; (3) to speed up integration of water flooding and enhanced oil recovery (EOR) and technological upgrading in order to enhance oil recovery; (4) to innovate key techniques in gas flooding and accelerate the industrial popularization of gas flooding; (5) to break the related transaction barriers and create new management models; and (6) to collaboratively optimize strategic layout and cultivate key oil bases. Although oilfield development in China faces huge challenges in cost, the low-cost development strategy will succeed as long as strategic development of mature and new oil fields is well planned. The cores to lower cost are to control decline rate and enhance oil recovery in mature oil fields, and increase single well productivity through technical innovation and improve engineering service efficiency through management innovation in new oil fields.
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