2020年,石油产业链上发生了一些重大事件,包括负油价的出现、熔喷布价格暴涨、埃克森美孚从道琼斯指数调整出局、石油需求峰值论等,对石油勘探界的影响至深至广。勘探处于整个石油产业链最前端,勘探家对石油产业发展影响巨大。勘探家找油要有正确的思想方法,还要有科学技术手段,二者缺一不可。对油气勘探的认知,需要用发展的眼光借鉴前人找油哲学,既要明确主体活动和客观结构的关系,两者之间存在内在张力而又相辅相成的辩证关系;又要明确主动性和决定性的逻辑,两者之间是以改变世界的能动论逻辑和基于科学技术的决定论逻辑的双重逻辑;大庆古龙页岩油的战略性、转折性重大突破就是一个例证。近年来石油资源的认识与实践,颠覆了传统的钟型曲线预测模型,呈现出波浪式不断前进的趋势。登高自卑,行远自迩。展望未来,勘探家有智慧、有能力、有办法,找到更多的、更清洁的、更能用得起的石油,来驱动人类文明不断的进步。这就是石油勘探家的责任。 图16 参19
孙龙德
,
冯子辉
,
江航
,
姜涛
. 石油勘探家责任之我见——兼论油气勘探的双重逻辑和未来趋势[J]. 石油勘探与开发, 2021
, 48(4)
: 861
-868
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DOI: 10.11698/PED.2021.04.19
Some unusual events happened in petroleum industry in 2020, such as the emergence of negative WTI oil price, price soaring of melt-blown nonwoven fabric, Exxon Mobil Corp.(NYSE:XOM) deletion from Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the opinion of peak oil demand published by BP Energy Outlook 2020 Edition. These events have made profound impact on petroleum exploration. Prospecting is at the forefront of petroleum industry chain. Prospectors have great influence on petroleum industry. The responsibility of petroleum prospectors is to find oil, which calls for correct way of thinking as well as scientific and technical means, both of which are indispensable. When it comes to cognition of petroleum exploration, we should draw lessons from predecessors' philosophy of finding oil from a development perspective. It is necessary to define the relationship between subject activity and objective structure, as there is an inherent tension between the two and a dialectical relationship that complements each other. It is also essential to nail down the logic of initiative and decisiveness, as between the two is the dual logic of active logic that changes the world and deterministic logic based on science and technology. The strategic breakthrough in the Gulong shale oil exploration in Daqing is a typical example. Our knowledge and practice of oil exploration has overthrown the Hubbert Curve. The new curve may have more than one peak, which means hopes are always there for finding oil. Climbing to the top of a mountain must start from the foot. A journey of a thousand miles must begin with a single step. Looking forward to the future, our prospectors have the wisdom, ability, and methods to find more, cleaner, and more affordable oil to drive the progress of human civilization. This is the duty of petroleum prospectors.
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