二氧化碳是全球碳循环的重要介质,具有实现生态系统有机物的转换和造成温室效应的双重属性。将大气圈中被固定或可利用的二氧化碳定义为“灰碳”无法被固定或利用,并留存在大气圈中的二氧化碳定义为“黑碳”。碳中和是人类发展的共识,但在实施过程中面临着政治、资源、技术、市场、能源结构等诸多挑战。提出碳替代、碳减排、碳封存、碳循环是实现碳中和的4种主要途径,其中碳替代将是碳中和的中坚力量。新能源已经成为第3次能源转换的主角,未来将成为碳中和的主导。目前,太阳能、风能、水能、核能、氢能等是新能源的主力军,助力电力部门实现低碳排放;“绿氢”是新能源的后备军,助力工业与交通等领域进一步降低碳排放;人工碳转化技术是连接新能源与化石能源的桥梁,有效降低化石能源的碳排放。预测2030年中国碳达峰的峰值约110×108 t。按照高、中、低3种情景预测2060年中国碳排放将分别降至22×108,33×108,44×108 t。针对中国实现碳中和提出7项实施建议。构建中国新的“三小一大”能源结构,推动实现中国能源“独立自主”战略。图9表2参35
邹才能
,
熊波
,
薛华庆
,
郑德温
,
葛稚新
,
王影
,
蒋璐阳
,
潘松圻
,
吴松涛
. 新能源在碳中和中的地位与作用[J]. 石油勘探与开发, 2021
, 48(2)
: 411
-420
.
DOI: 10.11698/PED.2021.02.18
Carbon dioxide is an important medium of the global carbon cycle, and has the dual properties of realizing the conversion of organic matter in the ecosystem and causing the greenhouse effect. The fixed or available carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is defined as “gray carbon”, while the carbon dioxide that cannot be fixed or used and remains in the atmosphere is called “black carbon”. Carbon neutral is the consensus of human development, but its implementation still faces many challenges in politics, resources, technology, market, and energy structure, etc. It is proposed that carbon replacement, carbon emission reduction, carbon sequestration, and carbon cycle are the four main approaches to achieve carbon neutral, among which carbon replacement is the backbone. New energy has become the leading role of the third energy conversion and will dominate carbon neutral in the future. Nowadays, solar energy, wind energy, hydropower, nuclear energy and hydrogen energy are the main forces of new energy, helping the power sector to achieve low carbon emissions. “Green hydrogen” is the reserve force of new energy, helping further reduce carbon emissions in industrial and transportation fields. Artificial carbon conversion technology is a bridge connecting new energy and fossil energy, effectively reducing the carbon emissions of fossil energy. It is predicted that the peak value of China’s carbon dioxide emissions will reach 110×108 t in 2030. The study predicts that China's carbon emissions will drop to 22×108 t, 33×108 t and 44×108 t, respectively, in 2060 according to three scenarios of high, medium, and low levels. To realize carbon neutral in China, seven implementation suggestions have been put forward to build a new “three small and one large” energy structure in China and promote the realization of China's energy independence strategy.
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